现在，在我生活和工作的西雅图，人们谈论的都是期待已久的房价上涨。

无论是在本地还是在全国，都有明确的证据表明，今年夏天到目前为止，房价都在上涨。 几个关注全国价格水平的数据来源都显示出大致相同的结果，但有一个数据引人注目。 Clear Capital published a 报告 suggesting that sale prices were up by 1.7% across the U.S. during the second quarter, and that “the West led the regions in price recovery and forecasted growth.”

They even went as far as to suggest that the Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma market should exhibit annual price growth of 14.4% by year’s end, and that this market ranked first out of all the metropolitan areas analyzed.

但在悦博体育开始庆祝期待已久的市场回归之前，我想对这个非常乐观的故事补充几句告诫的话。

The data that I am looking at does, indeed, show several regions that have seen an extraordinarily good second quarter, but there is also data that suggests that we should not get too excited too quickly – and it’s all about 丧失抵押品赎回权.

Whilst it’s undoubtedly true that 丧失抵押品赎回权 brought home prices down initially, they actually then started driving them up due to rabid demand from both investors and first-time buyers who were looking for bargains. （在西雅图，情况就是如此，2011年超过30%的交易都是由投资者用现金购买的。）

随着银行继续努力修改许多资不抵债的贷款，这些廉价住房的供应现在开始减少。 Additionally, states that require a judge in the foreclosure process are facing a huge backlog that is dramatically lowering — albeit temporarily — the number of distressed units for sale.

对贷款机构和服务机构如何处理止赎的额外审查，以及联邦政府和几个州政府积极预防止赎的努力，继续在全国范围内阻碍止赎市场。

综上所述，这两件事表明，目前房价是由出售更昂贵的、非不良资产单位推高的。

“So it’s all good”, I hear you way. 请稍等一下。

Overall foreclosure activity was down in the second quarter of this year, driven primarily by a drop in bank repossessions (REO’s). But according to RealtyTrak, 311,010 properties started the foreclosure process during second quarter, which represents a nine percent increase from the previous quarter and a six percent increase from the second quarter of 2011. 这是自2009年第四季度以来，止赎房屋数量首次出现同比增长。

在我看来，似乎贷款机构现在正在缓慢但肯定地赶上拖欠贷款的积压，这就是为什么完成止赎程序的平均时间在第二季度开始趋于平稳，或者在一些州有所减少。

我相信，今年上半年止赎房屋数量的增加可能会在2012年下半年和明年转化为更多的卖空和银行收回。

这是什么意思？ 如果悦博体育看到不良房屋上市数量急剧增加，同时进入市场的非不良房屋数量持续低迷，悦博体育肯定会失去最近看到的价格涨幅。

话虽如此，我想补充一点，并非所有市场都是平等的，有些市场肯定会比其他市场表现更好，但我担心现在就称美国房地产市场触底还为时过早。