以下是温德米尔房地产公司首席经济学家马修·加德纳对南加州房地产市场的分析。 悦博体育希望这些信息能对你有所帮助 与 做出更明智的房地产决策。 有关您所在地区房地产市场的更多信息，请不要犹豫与您的温德米尔代理联系。 

经济概述

本报告涵盖的县-洛杉矶，圣地亚哥，圣贝纳迪诺，奥兰治和河滨-在2018年2月至2019年2月期间增加了16.5万个新工作岗位。 这悦博体育年增长率为1.7%。 同期，失业率从4.4%降至3.9%。 南加州的就业增长在冬末略有回升。 洛杉矶县领先，增加了96,500个新工作岗位。 我对南加州2019年就业的预测是继续增长1.5%左右。

房屋销售

• There were 34,142 home sales in the first quarter of 2019. This was a drop of 12.4% from the same period in 2018 and 13.9% lower than the final quarter of last year
• Pending home sales (an indicator of future closings) were just 2.8% lower than during the same period a year ago, but down 18% compared to the fourth quarter of 2018. This suggests that second-quarter sales are likely to disappoint.
• Home sales dropped across the board, but the most noticeable decline was again in Orange County, which fell by 15.2%. This drop is probably temporary and was more than likely driven by the 49% increase in inventory and high home prices. The smallest drop was in the more affordable Riverside County.
• There was an average of 37,641 active listings in the first quarter — up 30.5% from a year ago.

房价

• Year-over-year, average prices in the region rose a very modest .3% and were 2.4% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2018.
• Affordability remains an issue in most of the Southern California counties contained in this report, which, in concert 与 growing inventory, will likely continue to limit home price growth.
• 价格涨幅各不相同。 Riverside County showed the greatest annual appreciation (+4.3%). Average home prices dropped 1.4% in Orange County.
• On a year-over-year basis, I expect to see home prices continue to rise through 2019, but the rate of growth will be more modest than the market has seen in several years.

上市天数

• The average time it took to sell a home in the region was 53 days. This is a 10-day increase compared to the first quarter of 2018, and eight days more than in the fourth quarter of 2018.
• 所有 markets saw an increase in the time it took to sell a house in the first quarter of this year compared to both the first and fourth quarters of 2018.
• Homes in San Diego County continue to sell at a faster rate than other markets in the region. In the first quarter, it took an average of 37 days to sell a home, which is eight days more than it took a year ago.
• Market time is increasing, which may concern some; however, it is simply a move back to normal averages.

结论

速度计反映了该地区房地产市场的状况，包括住房库存、价格涨幅、房屋销售、利率和更大的经济因素。

The Southern California economy saw a bit of a boost in early 2019, which is good news. But rising inventory levels and low affordability in many markets will lead to slower price growth. Affordability remains a significant issue and I will be watching proposed legislation, such as Senate Bill 50, to see whether there is enough interest in addressing this obstacle to home ownership.

Rising inventories and slower price growth has led me to move the needle a little further toward buyers.

作为Windermere Real Estate的首席经济学家，Matthew Gardner负责分析和解释经济数据及其对地方和全国房地产市场的影响。 Matthew在美国和英国拥有超过30年的专业经验

除了日常工作之外，马修还是华盛顿州州长经济顾问委员会的成员； 华盛顿大学华盛顿房地产研究中心董事会主席； 他是华盛顿大学伦斯塔德房地产研究中心的顾问委员会成员，并在那里讲授房地产经济学。