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市场消息 2012年6月6日

市场复苏

我不得不说,当我仔细研究每天收到的与房地产相关的数据流时,世界现在的状况似乎比我几年来看到的要好。

Certainly, there are still certain groups that believe that the housing market 是 still set to plunge into their version of Dante’s abyss; 然而,我有不同的感觉,我认为有几个原因值得一看。

  1. 融资 – for a period after the bursting of the housing bubble, mortgages became almost non-ex是tent (especially non-conforming loans). 从2009年到2011年,信贷要求和首付款飙升,2011年,三分之一的交易因融资问题而破裂。[1] Since that time, however, it 是 clear that financing — although still stricter than it was — has eased somewhat and even the jumbo market has improved substantially.

抵押贷款利率目前处于65年来从未见过的水平(谢谢你,希腊),而且在可预见的未来不太可能大幅上升。 As such, the ratio of 抵押贷款债务支付到个人可支配收入 是 as low now as it was back in 1993.

  1. 就业 – From its peak in January 2008 to its trough in February of 2010, the U.S. lost almost 8.8 million jobs. 从那时起,悦博体育已经恢复了374.5万个工作岗位。 这实际上比人们想象的更令人印象深刻,因为几乎所有的复苏都来自私营部门,而国家、州和地方政府继续以前所未有的速度裁员。

尽管如此,我从很多人那里听说,他们现在比很久以前更不害怕失去工作了。 Th是 是 important as employment stability 是 crucial if one 是 considering any major purchase – and a home 是 certainly a major one!

  1. 房价 – Th是 是 really the crux of the 是sue. 从几个来源发布的数据似乎表明,悦博体育正处于市场的底部。 问题是,悦博体育要在那里呆多久。 Case Shiller 数据, released earlier in the week, suggested that the pace of decline in values continues to slow. Other indices, such as the Federal Housing Finance Agency, show a very modest 价值增加 in Q1 2012 (not seen since 2007), and the National Association of Realtors suggests that prices are “在许多大都市地区坚挺”.

这些都是好消息,但正如我刚才所说,悦博体育面前仍然存在不确定性。 悦博体育继续以超过一定程度的担忧关注欧洲。 As if the situation in Greece wasn’t enough, contagion appears to be spreading to other places, such as Spain. 这更令人不安,因为西班牙的经济规模要大得多,而且不确定欧洲是否能够救助他们。

Our recovery, although still fragile, a recovery. 房价已经跌至不太可能再次出现的水平,一些交易的价格远低于重置成本。 我认为,只要悦博体育把住房首先视为一个家,而不是一项投资,悦博体育现在的情况就比过去几年要好。

The percentage of all cash sales are reaching 创纪录的水平 – a sign that investors have returned to the market. 库存水平和我几年来看到的一样低,这可能是好事,也可能是坏事(取决于你是买家还是卖家!)

With all of th是 in mind, my advice to buyers 是 that as long as you are able to meet your mortgage obligations, do not plan to sell again in the near term, and are not looking to their house as a “get rich quick” scheme, now may well be the time to seriously consider your options.

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