以下是Windermere real estate首席经济学家Matthew Gardner对丹佛大都会和北科罗拉多房地产市场（现在包括Clear Creek， Gilpin和Park县）的分析。 悦博体育希望这些信息可以帮助您做出更明智的房地产决策。 有关您所在地区房地产市场的更多信息，请不要犹豫与您的温德米尔代理联系。

经济概述

科罗拉多州的经济持续增长，在过去的12个月里新增了44,800个非农就业岗位。 这是1.7%的合理增长率。 正如上个季度的加德纳报告所述，悦博体育继续看到就业增长适度放缓，但在商业周期的这个阶段，这是意料之中的。 我预测科罗拉多州的就业增长将在今年有所回升，2019年将增加7万个新工作岗位，增长率为2.6%。

2月份，该州的失业率为3.7%，高于一年前的2.9%。 这一增长主要是由于劳动力增长，过去一年增加了84,000多人。 在季节性调整的基础上，本报告中包含的所有市场的失业率在过去一年中都没有太大变化，但博尔德的失业率小幅下降（2.7%），该州的平衡要么保持在与一年前相同的水平，要么小幅上升。

房屋销售

• In the first quarter of 2019, 11,164 homes sold — a drop of 3% compared to the first quarter of 2018 and down 13.5% from the fourth quarter of last year. Pending sales in the quarter were a mixed bag. Five counties saw an increase, but five showed signs of slowing.
• The only market that had sales growth was Adams, which rose 4.9%. The rest of the counties contained in this report saw sales decline, with a significant drop in the small Park County area.
• I believe the drop in the number of home sales is partially due to the significant increase in listings (+45.6%), which has given would-be home buyers more choice and less need to act quickly.
• As mentioned above, inventory growth in the quarter was significant, but I continue to believe that the market will see sales rise. I expect the second half of the year to perform better than the first.

房价

• Home prices continue to trend higher, but the rate of growth is tapering. The average home price in the region rose just 2.1% year-over-year to $456,243. Home prices were .3% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2018.
• I anticipate that the drop in interest rates early in the year will likely get more buyers off the fence and this will allow prices to rise.
• Appreciation was again strongest in Park County, where prices rose 21.9%. We still attribute this rapid increase to it being a small market. Only Clear Creek County experienced a drop in average home price. Similar to Park County, this is due to it being a very small market, making it more prone to significant swings.
• Affordability remains an issue in many Colorado markets but that may be offset by the drop in interest rates.

上市天数

• The average number of days it took to sell a home in Colorado rose five days compared to the first quarter of 2018.
• The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in two counties — Gilpin and Park — compared to the first quarter of 2018. The rest of the counties in this report saw days-on-market rise modestly with the exception of the small Clear Creek market, which rose by 26 days.
• In the first quarter of 2019, it took an average of 42 days to sell a home in the region, an increase of four days compared to the final quarter of 2018.
• Job growth drives housing demand, but buyers are faced with more choice and are far less frantic than they were over the past few years. That said, I anticipate the late spring will bring more activity and sales.

结论

这个速度计反映了该地区房地产市场的状态，使用住房库存、价格涨幅、房屋销售、利率和更大的经济因素。

For the first quarter of 2019, I have moved the needle a little more in favor of buyers. I am watching listing activity closely to see if we get any major bumps above the traditional increase because that may further slow home price growth; however, the trend for 2019 will continue towards a more balanced market.

作为Windermere Real Estate的首席经济学家，Matthew Gardner负责分析和解释经济数据及其对地方和全国房地产市场的影响。 Matthew在美国和英国拥有超过30年的专业经验

除了日常工作之外，马修还是华盛顿州州长经济顾问委员会的成员； 华盛顿大学华盛顿房地产研究中心董事会主席； 他是华盛顿大学伦斯塔德房地产研究中心的顾问委员会成员，并在那里讲授房地产经济学。