本期视频是温德米尔首席经济学家马修·加德纳主持的周一马修系列节目的最新一期。 每个月，他都会分析最新的美国住房数据，让你随时了解房地产市场的动态。 

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你好!  我是温德米尔房地产公司的首席经济学家马修·加德纳，欢迎收看最新一期的马修周一节目。

Before I get started, I wanted to let you know that this will be the final episode of Monday with Matthew for 2021 as I’m going to be taking Christmas off. 所以，现在是时候向你提供我对2022年美国经济和美国房地产市场的预测了。

Although many people – including myself – had hoped that COVID-19 would have become a somewhat distant memory by now, and that the economy would have recovered this was – sadly – not to be the case, and the pandemic’s influence on the economy is still being felt and all the datasets I track tell me that, although we are certainly healing, COVID continues to act as a drag on economic growth and I expect that to continue through the spring of next year – if not a little longer.

经济复苏与增长

And it’s because of this that I – along with many other economists – have spent the last few months lowering our forecasts for economic growth – at least through the middle of 2022. 那么，让悦博体育仔细看看这个。 

以下是我对明年年底经济增长的预测，你会注意到，尽管我对经济在冬季和2022年的发展持谨慎态度，但我仍然希望在今年第四季度看到一个相当不错的反弹，因为悦博体育在第三季度看到了非常令人失望的速度。

按年计算，我认为今年的经济增长率将接近5%，到2022年将略低于4%。

简而言之，2019冠状病毒病的影响明年将继续拖累对病毒敏感的消费者服务，持续的供应链问题也将推迟库存补充。 这两种影响在很多方面都对经济增长产生了令人沮丧的影响，但我认为悦博体育不会有任何机会再次陷入衰退。

看就业形势这图表显示我的工作在一个季度的平均增长预期和给你一些上下文,在过去十年左右的全国平均增加了约200000个工作岗位在任何一个季度每月和我更加强劲的就业增长预测是随着2022年的到来,如果正确,我希望看到这个国家回到pre-COVID下半年就业水平。

随着就业机会的不断增加，我预计失业率将继续下降，并在今年最后一个季度跌破4%。 With the expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits – in concert with wages rising significantly in many face-to-face industries such as leisure and hospitality – prospects for people currently unemployed are looking rather good. 也就是说，即使工资上涨，仍有数百万失业的美国人没有找工作，劳动力仍比大流行前的峰值减少了300万人，这令人担忧，因为企业仍然很难找到员工，这提高了人们对通货膨胀率将持续高企的预期，比我希望看到的时间更长。

通货膨胀措施

这就引出了我的最后一个经济预测那就是我对通货膨胀的展望。 正如悦博体育所讨论的，供应链问题和劳动力短缺显著提高了价格，这张顶部的图表显示了所有消费者价格的年度变化，我预计到明年春天将保持在5%左右，然后在年底逐渐下降到3%以下。

But the core inflation rate – which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors – won’t peak until early next year before it too starts to gradually pull back and, at these levels, the Federal Reserve will undoubtedly have started to raise interest rates to counteract inflationary pressures. 这种情况并不乐观，但我绝对不相信悦博体育正处于某种通胀螺旋中，也不相信“滞胀”会再次抬头。

美国房地产市场

好吧! Now it’s time to turn our attention to the U.S. housing market which was a beacon of hope during the pandemic period and, given the massive spike in demand that started last June, I’m looking for a little more than 6 million existing homes will have changed hands in 2021, but I don’t see this level increasing in 2022 – mainly due to ongoing supply limitations as well as rising affordability issues, and I’m therefore forecasting sales to pull back  – albeit very modestly – next year. 也就是说，自从有记录以来，这个国家的房屋销售量从未超过600万套，所以这个数字仍然非常令人印象深刻。

And with the market as tight as it has been so far this year, it shouldn’t be any surprise to see median sale prices skyrocketing and, even though we have 3 more months of sales data yet to be released, I still anticipate prices will have risen by almost 16 and a half % in 2021- a quite remarkable number. 这种升值速度是前所未有的。 事实上，最接近的一次是在2005年，当时房地产泡沫正在迅速膨胀，但即便如此，价格也只上涨了12.2%。

但是，正如我在销售预测中提到的那样，这种增长速度是不可持续的，我预计明年市场的热度会有所下降，但7.3%的增长率肯定不容小觑。

悦博体育将看到增长速度放缓的主要原因有三个。 我已经提到了我对住房负担能力的担忧，但抵押贷款利率和新供应都将影响转售领域的销售放缓和价格增长。

Although I do not prepare a forecast for housing affordability, this is my where I expect to see mortgage rates through the end of next year and I am looking for them to continue “stair-stepping” higher but still ending 2022 below 4% – very low by historic standards given that the long-term average for a conventional 30-year mortgage is somewhere around 7 1/2%.

显然，随着利率上升，开始压缩价格增长，因为它降低了买家支付房屋的上限。

现有房屋价格和销售增长的放缓也将是额外供应的函数，这张图表显示了我对今明两年独栋房屋开工的预测。 I expect more than a million homes to start construction in 2022 – continuing the trend that started in mid-2020 – but I am sure that some of you may be asking yourselves that if starts are already robust, how have existing home sales been able to increase so significantly if there has been solid supply coming from homebuilders – and that would be a great question.

我要回答这个问题的方式是，人口普查收集数据的方式是计算房屋地基的数量，但垂直建筑不一定开始。 悦博体育看到的是打了很多地基，但实际在建的房屋并不多，悦博体育悦博体育通过观察待售但尚未开工的房屋数量来了解这一点。 So, it’s important to look at a separate number that the Census Bureau also puts out which counts the number of units actually under construction, and that number has been growing significantly over the course of the last 18 months or so.

建筑商一直受到劳动力和材料成本上涨的拖累，这将导致今年的新屋销售低于2020年的水平； 然而，我确实预计这将在明年大幅回升，我目前的预测是，到2022年将售出92.7万套新房。

以上就是我对2022年经济和房地产市场的预测。

当然，仍有许多变量可能导致我修改这一预测，但正如我的一位老经济学教授曾经告诉我的那样，“加德纳，预测得好，但要经常预测！”

如果一切都按照我的计划进行，你应该会看到房地产市场明年开始走向某种平衡，但我担心至少在2023年之前，它仍将处于不平衡状态。

And if you’re wondering, no, I don’t see a housing bubble forming and I’m also not at all concerned about homeowners currently in forbearance, but it would be silly to say that there aren’t any issues in the housing market that concern me because there are and the biggest of which is housing affordability and this will have a significant impact on the millennial generation who are continuing to get older, and they are all – well most – thinking about settling down and, possibly, 我想知道，对于他们中的许多人来说，要买得起他们的第一套房子会有多难，因为大多数人真的想成为房主。 建筑商们能想出办法满足这种被压抑的巨大需求吗？ 我向你保证，谁能解开这个谜题，谁就会做得非常非常好。

2019冠状病毒病对美国经济造成了前所未有的冲击，三角洲型的崛起肯定影响了悦博体育复苏的速度，但请放心，这位特别的预测者坚信悦博体育将复苏，经济将继续增长。

对自有住房的需求仍然非常活跃，事实上，随着明年开始获得动力的在家工作模式，需求很可能会实际增加。 这不仅会影响需求，还会影响这些买家最终选择居住的地方，这将是一件令人着迷的事情。

最后，我非常希望你们都喜欢我今年分享的视频，就像我喜欢制作它们一样。

一如既往，如果你对这个话题有任何问题或评论，请联系我，但与此同时，请注意安全，我期待着明年再次与你们一起访问。

现在再见。