温德米尔首席经济学家马修·加德纳悦博体育通过研究ATTOM数据解决方案和全国房屋建筑商协会（NAHB）的两份关键的第二季度报告，对2023年美国房价和住房负担能力进行了最新研究。

本期视频是温德米尔首席经济学家马修·加德纳主持的周一马修系列节目的最新一期。 每个月，他都会分析最新的美国住房数据，让你随时了解房地产市场的动态。

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2023年美国房价

Hello there, I’m Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to this month’s episode of 周一和马修一起. Today we are going to look at home prices and 住房负担能力. To do this I will be looking at the second quarter sales price data from atom数据解决方案 and we will also look at the just released 全国房屋建筑商协会 Opportunity Index for the second quarter.

房价在下跌吗？

Starting with the year-over-year change in sale prices at the state level, there aren’t any great surprises. For the past several months I’ve been saying that as the Western U.S. saw the greatest price growth during the pandemic, so it’s not surprising to see most states sale prices in the quarter below the level seen a year ago. But it was pleasing to see that 36个州的销售价格要么与一年前持平，要么更高, and in some instances quite significantly so.

2023年美国各州房屋销售价格

And when we compare second quarter sale prices to their 2022 peaks, 33个州处于或高于去年的高点, but most of the Western States have yet to fully recover. 在南部，路易斯安那州仍然远远落后，东海岸的纽约州也是如此。

但你们都很清楚，所有的市场都是不同的。 我认为，深入挖掘一下这些数据，看看哪些大都市市场在过去12个月里出现了显著增长，这将是一件有趣的事情。 It’s going to be interesting specifically because of the fact that 抵押贷款利率 have risen so much.

都市区：2023年房屋销售价格

这些市场的售价远高于其2022年的峰值售价。 现在我必须补充一点，我只研究了上个季度交易超过1000次的市场，这消除了一些波动性。 Notably, even though the state of Virginia’s home prices in the quarter were flat when compared to their 2022 peak, 罗阿诺克市场上涨了9%以上. And in Pennsylvania, where state prices were only 1.2% above their 2022 peak, 雷丁上涨了7.6%，约克上涨了7.4%. And in Georgia, where state sale prices were up a modest 1.6%, homes in Macon have leapt by over 13% and 萨凡纳的房价上涨了6.9%.

But, on the other end of the spectrum, 有些市场表现不佳 their respective states and, unsurprisingly, California tops the list with three of their metros seeing prices significantly below that of the state as a whole. 在该国其他地区，疫情前相对负担得起的几个大都市地区出现了远程工作人员的涌入，导致价格飙升，这需要一段时间才能恢复。 在奥斯汀和博伊西市场地区尤其如此。

I would add that, of the counties across the country where there were more than 1,000 transactions in the second quarter, half have met or exceeded their prior peak and—of the half where sale prices were still lower—the average shortfall is only around 4% and 全国只有7个县的房价比2022年的峰值下降了10%以上.

Now, what I see in the data is that 美国房地产市场, although certainly not fully healed, 是否正朝着正确的方向前进 even when faced with 抵押贷款利率 that remain remarkably high. 因此，随着销售价格的回升，以及融资成本居高不下，人们的负担能力究竟如何？

《美国住房负担能力2023》

Well, according to the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB), of the 241 metros that they track, 在第二季度的销售中，只有40.5%是该地区中等收入家庭能够负担得起的—that’s the second lowest share of sales seen since they started generating this dataset a decade ago. 现在，他们的数据确实追溯到2004年，但他们过去使用的利率系列已经停止了，所以将他们今天的数据与2012年之前的数据进行比较是不准确的。

最实惠的美国住房市场

这些是第二季度最便宜的市场，它们的位置不应该有任何大的惊喜。 Average sale prices in these markets were measured around 203000美元—that’s just marginally above 50% of the national sale price in the quarter, which was 402600美元.

最难以负担的美国住房市场

不幸的是，这也不应该让你感到惊讶。 另一方面，十大最难以负担的住房市场都在加州，但情况比这更糟。 前15个最难以负担的市场再次出现，全部在加州，前25个市场中有19个在金州！

As far as I can see, 自有住房市场 is still showing remarkable resiliency, especially given that 抵押贷款利率 have more than doubled from their lows and they’ve risen from 4.8% at the start of the second quarter of last year to 7% at the end of the second quarter of 2023.

现在，我仍然预计，随着悦博体育进入今年下半年，利率将开始缓慢下降。 这将有助于价格，并在一定程度上提高人们的负担能力，但在悦博体育看到挂牌出售的房屋数量大幅增加之前，市场将保持不平衡。

和往常一样，我很想听听你对这个问题的看法，所以请在下面留下你的评论。 下个月之前，在外面注意安全，悦博体育很快就会再见。 现在再见。

要查看您所在地区最新的房地产市场数据，请访问悦博体育的季度 市场的更新 页面。

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关于马修·加德纳

作为Windermere Real Estate的首席经济学家，Matthew Gardner负责分析和解释经济数据及其对地方和全国房地产市场的影响。 Matthew在美国和英国拥有超过30年的专业经验

除了日常工作之外，马修还是华盛顿州州长经济顾问委员会的成员； 华盛顿大学华盛顿房地产研究中心董事会主席； 他是华盛顿大学伦斯塔德房地产研究中心的顾问委员会成员，并在那里讲授房地产经济学。