我相信，明年的大新闻将是首次购房者。 Since they don’t need to sell before purchasing, their reemergence into the market ensures that sales will continue to increase, even while inventory is limited. 目前房地产市场上31%的买家是首次购房者，但如果这个数字接近40%，那就更理想了。

Why don’t we have enough first-time buyers in the market? With Baby Boomers working and living longer, we aren’t making much room for Millennials to start their careers. 此外，年轻一代欠下的主要债务是学生贷款（目前为1.3万亿美元），这对房地产市场产生了巨大影响。 但更大的问题是缺乏首付。 在经济衰退之前，许多千禧一代可以向父母寻求首付款方面的帮助； 然而，如今的情况并非如此。

I would also contend that the notion of Millennials being a “renter generation” is nonsense. In a National Association of Realtors survey, 75 percent of them said that buying a home would be the most astute financial decision they’d ever make; however, 80 percent said they don’t think they could qualify for a mortgage. I do believe that Millennials will eventually buy, but they’re delaying their purchasing decisions by about three years when compared to previous generations, which is about the same amount of time they’re waiting to start families as well.

自大选以来，抵押贷款利率迅速上升，不幸的是，我没有看到这种趋势出现转机。 尽管如此，与历史平均水平相比，它们仍将保持便宜。 预计到2017年底，30年期抵押贷款的收益率将升至4.7%左右。 For those who have grown accustomed to interest rates being at historic lows, this might seem high, but it’s all relative.

If I were to gaze all the way into 2018, my crystal ball takes me to the dreaded “R” word. 就像税收和死亡一样，经济衰退是另一种不可避免地经常出现的不受欢迎的现实。 无论谁当选总统，我的观点都是一样的：准备好在2018年底之前看到商业周期衰退，但请放心，它不会由房地产驱动，也不会以任何方式类似于大衰退。